Decision: use INDEX/MATCH because Excel 2016 must recalculate the workbook, the return column is left of the key, and column insertion makes a VLOOKUP column index brittle. XLOOKUP is the clearest modern option but is not available in the required oldest version.
Formula for Orders!F2: =IF(B2="","",IFERROR(INDEX(Customers!$B$2:$B$5000,MATCH(B2,Customers!$D$2:$D$5000,0)),"Review")). MATCH finds the exact key position because its third argument is 0; INDEX returns the same position from the risk-tier range. IF preserves blank input, while IFERROR supplies the approved no-match label. Before use, check =COUNTIF(Customers!$D$2:$D$5000,D2) and resolve counts above 1; the lookup formula itself cannot decide which duplicate is valid.
Matrix: XLOOKUP supports left lookup and explicit no-match cleanly but fails Excel 2016 compatibility. VLOOKUP works only by rearranging or duplicating the key to the left of the return field and a numeric column index can break after insertions. INDEX/MATCH satisfies compatibility, left return, and layout resilience. Microsoft 365-only alternative: =IF(B2="","",XLOOKUP(B2,Customers!$D$2:$D$5000,Customers!$B$2:$B$5000,"Review",0)).
Tests: C-104 → Medium; blank → blank; unknown C-999 → Review; text ID versus differently typed source → Review until normalized; duplicated C-104 → duplicate check >1 and result not trusted; insert a column between B and D → formula references shift with the data and should still return the same tier.